Ukraine is pressing for strong security guarantees as a condition for any peace agreement with Russia, following high-level talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Donald Trump, and European leaders. While Washington has pledged involvement, questions remain over the scope of these guarantees and whether they will extend beyond the material and financial aid already provided since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion.

Trump has not committed U.S. troops to Ukraine, but his Russia envoy, Steve Witkoff, hinted after the recent Alaska summit that the U.S. could offer “Article 5-like protection”, similar to NATO’s collective defense principle.

What Would ‘Article 5-Like’ Protection Mean?

Article 5 of the NATO treaty states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, obligating members to respond. However, the commitment is flexible—countries decide what actions to take, including but not limited to armed force.

What Ukraine Wants

President Zelensky revealed that Ukraine’s proposal includes $90 billion in U.S. weapons purchases funded by Europe, along with a $50 billion drone production agreement involving U.S. partners. Ukraine also aims to expand its domestic drone manufacturing, with some units being purchased by the U.S.

“The agreement will be finalized within 7 to 10 days,” Zelensky said after meeting Trump. The shared document emphasizes that any lasting peace must rely on a strong security framework to prevent future aggression, rather than concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What Allies Are Saying

A “coalition of the willing”—around 30 nations led by France and Britain—has pledged to help Ukraine rebuild its military and safeguard its airspace and Black Sea routes. French President Emmanuel Macron said the coalition is even considering deploying “several thousand troops” to Ukraine post-ceasefire as a symbolic deterrent, not for frontline combat.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also suggested forming a stabilization force for Ukraine after a peace deal, though specifics are yet to be decided.

Three Possible Guarantee Models

According to reports:

1. Full Peacekeeping Force – A robust, armed international presence to deter Russia, though assembling such a force would require tens of thousands of troops, making it logistically challenging.
2. Tripwire Force – A smaller contingent positioned in Ukraine, primarily to deter Russia by risking foreign casualties in case of aggression.
3. Observer Mission – A minimal force using technology and ground monitoring to detect hostile movements, offering no real defensive capability.

Putin’s Likely Response

Analysts warn Moscow will reject any solid guarantees for Ukraine, and Washington is unlikely to give full military commitments. Past assurances—like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Russia, the U.S., and the UK pledged to respect Ukraine’s borders—failed to prevent the current crisis.

“Outside NATO, there is no credible guarantor of Ukrainian security,” said Janis Kluge of SWP, while other experts argue Putin will never agree to a deal that leaves Ukraine free and independent.

As peace negotiations remain uncertain, one truth stands out: real security guarantees mean being ready to fight to defend Ukraine, a commitment few are willing to make.